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Skew-T Diagram from Buffalo, NY

#4 Buffalo, New York

CAPE:

 Weak: 466 J/kg, more if the skin layer of moisture is used for a surface parcel

Deep Layer Shear:

 Good: 0-6 km 50 knots shear, but all unidirectional

Mid-level Lapse Rates:

 Weak: essentially moist adiabatic from -10 C and above

Freezing Level:

 12.1 kft

Overall Threat of Severe Hail:

 Slight: Not a lot of CAPE, shear is good but unidirectional, and lapse rates are weak. It would take a rotating storm to get some severe hail, and that is certainly possible with this shear.

Summary of the Event:

Date of Sounding: 28 September 1998 @ 00 UTC
At 2040 UTC on the 27th 4.00 inch hail fell at Niagara Falls, NY. The sounding above was very likely not representative of the environment that the hailstorms were feeding on. Though very close in proximity to the hailstorms, the sounding was 3-4 hours after the event.

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