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_____________________________________________________ Click here first for an Introduction
_____________________________________________________ Specific Job Task Skills and Knowledge:Task 3.1: Using a knowledge of severe convective patterns, perform an analysis of initial synoptic-scale data to evaluate the potential for severe convection in the forecast region:
Task 3.2: Using a knowledge of severe convective patterns and known model biases, perform an integrated 4-D analysis of future (or expected) synoptic parameters to evaluate the large-scale threat of severe convection in the forecast region in the next 12 hours:
Task 3.3: Forecast general type of severe weather based on evaluation of patterns and parameter values. Instructional Components:Training 3.1: Review the various modules based on varying categories provided below. Skew-T Diagrams
Review the Skew-T Mastery training module from COMET, and/or download and review the NWSTC Remote Training Module 230 Skew-T Log P Diagram and Sounding Analysis manual. Synoptic Patterns
Review the NWSTC Synoptic Pattern Database to become familiar with synoptic patterns associated with severe thunderstorm occurance (tornadic outbreaks, derechos, MCSs, etc.). This database will serve to improve pattern recognition skills of specific severe weather types. AWOC Severe IC1 - Lesson 3: Flash Flooding Conceptual Models Severe Weather Parameters
Review the Convective Season Environmental Parameters and Indices page by the Louisville, KY WFO for an overview of commonly-used indices for evaluating severe weather potential. AWOC Severe Track - IC 2: Outlook and Short-Term Assessment DLOC Topic 7 - Pre-Requisite: Operational Severe Weather Diagnostic Parameters Flash Flood Warning Best Practices: The Meteorology Behind Extreme Rain Events Training 3.2: Practice the skills learned through WES training sessions using the Interval or Situational Awareness simulation methods.
References:Environmental Conditions and Patterns
An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak by Richard L. Thompson and Roger Edwards. Examination of Derecho Environments Using Proximity Soundings by Jeffery S. Evans and Charles A. Doswell III. Meteorological Conditions Associated with Bow Echo Development in Convective Storms by Robert H. Johns. Synoptic Environments and Convective Storm Modes Associated with Significant Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States by Richard L. Thompson et. al. Severe Convective Wind Environments by Evan L. Kuchera and Matthew D. Parker. Airflow Configurations of Warm Season Southerly Low-Level Wind Maxima in the Great Plains. Part II: The Synoptic and Subsynoptic-Scale Environment by Claudia K. Walters. Utilizing Normalized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic-Scale Weather Events in the Western United States by Randall A. Gramm and Richard H. Grumm Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients-based methodology by Charles A. Doswell III, Harold E. Brooks, and Robert A. Maddox Synoptic and Meso-Alpha Aspects of Flash Flood Events by Maddox et al. Case Studies
A Case Study of Severe Winter Convection in the Midwest by Brian P. Pettegrew et. al. A Case Study of Severe Storm Development along a Dryline within a Synoptically Active Environment. Part I: Dryline Motion and an Eta Model Forecast by Carl E. Hane et. al. Other
Basic Convection I: A Review of Atmospheric Thermodynamics by Charles A. Doswell III Severe Convective Storms - An Overview by Charles A. Doswell III. The Storm Prediction Center Publications web page. Severe Local Storms Forecasting by Robert H. Johns and Charles A. Doswell III. Evaluation of WRF Forecasts of Tornadic and Nontornadic Outbreaks When Initialized with Synoptic-Scale Input by Chad M. Shafer et. al. _____________________________________________________ If you have any questions or comments concerning this page, please email Brad Grant. Return to the PDS Home Page |
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