1. Introduction

Many advances in the understanding of microbursts have been made over the past 20 years. Although tornadic events are more highly publicized, the damage inflicted by microbursts can be similar to most tornadoes. Microbursts pose a risk to life and property, as well as being a significant threat to the aviation community. Although difficult at times, accurate and timely forecasts for microbursts may be possible if proper forecasting techniques are used. This tutorial will focus explicitly on forecasting the phenomena known as "wet" microbursts.

A good example of those who need the skills to accurately forecast microbursts are the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) located at Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) in Florida. The forecasting responsibilities of the 45WS include Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAS), and PAFB: a total population of over 25,000 people and $8 billion worth of resources and facilities (not including payloads). Each year, the 45WS issues over 175 convective and 1200 lightning watches, advisories, and warnings (some of the criteria for their convective wind warnings are listed in Table 1). The impact of these statements can be significant, especially if they result in high false alarm rates, delayed operations schedule, and/or insufficient warning lead time. For the 45WS, as well as for other forecasters, there is always room for improvement in these areas.

Poor warning decisions can be made by a forecaster that does not take all relevent information into account, or is unable to view all necessary information for some reason. For convective wind warning situations, a forecast funnel chart (Fig. 1) was developed by the 45WS to aid forecasters. The remaining chapters of this work will focus on each step in the funnel (Outlook, Intermediate, and Nowcasting) that precedes the warning decision.